Mathematical models and theorems ∗
نویسنده
چکیده
In most of the modules at this website1 we are exploring simulated outbreaks of diseases. These explorations rely on agent-based models of disease transmission that are embodied in the computer program IONTW. Simulations can lead to meaningful conjectures about the answers to Question 1. But their outcomes are subject to random fluctuations that may distort the predictions. If one runs large batches of them, one can derive estimates on the level of confidence that can be assigned to the answers to parts (a) and (c) for a given choice of parameters. This is often sufficient for practical purposes, but falls short of absolute confidence. Deriving answers for part (b) of Question 1 from agent-based models is even more problematic. One can run simulations only for a given choice of parameters, or a sample of such choices. But parameter settings that are left unexplored might give very different outcomes. Part (d) of Question 1 is the most difficult one to explore with agent-based models. It may be feasible to run simulations for populations of perhaps a few hundred or a few thousand hosts, but the sizes of real populations of interest may be in the millions.
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تاریخ انتشار 2016